MARÍA ALONSO RAPOSO
The future of transport will be marked by new technologies such as vehicle connectivity and automation, together with mobility services like ride-sharing or car-sharing. The combination of these technologies and services can have a disruptive effect, enabling new business models in place of the legacy vehicle ownership-based model. With improved safety and conditions (including accessibility), travel demand is expected to rise significantly. At the same time, it is anticipated that these new technologies will bring deep changes in the labour market, progressively reducing the relevance of some occupations and skills, while at the same time opening up new business opportunities and requiring new and more advanced skills.
©Metamorworks - istockphoto.com
The term Cooperative, Connected and Automated Mobility (CCAM)  enshrines the concept of a future mobility in which all actors are connected, communicating and interacting in a seamless and automated way. Recently, the third and last part of the Europe on the Move package  was presented by the European Commission, including a communication on automated mobility . While CCAM may well reduce demand for professional drivers, it could also help to make jobs in driving more attractive and to remedy the current shortage of drivers. In response to the Council conclusions on the digitalisation of transport , the European Commission has already undertaken a review of the expected socio-economic impacts of automated and connected vehicles on the EU economy and jobs .
Concerns about job destruction due to automation
History has shown that even if effective technologies implementation affects workers negatively in the short term , technology advancements can lead to
'The maintenance and repair industry will require ICT skills in addition to traditional vehicle repair skills'
higher job creation  in the long run. Estimations of the number of jobs at risk of automation produce divergent results based on the approach followed. For instance, 47% of US jobs  have been estimated to be at risk of computerisation, while only 9% of jobs in OECD  countries are considered at risk. Nowadays, Automated Vehicles (AVs) cannot perform all the tasks required in most driving-related jobs, and there is much uncertainty whether they ever will .
Occupations at risk of job displacement by CCAM
According to different scenarios, the current 3.2 million truck-driving jobs in Europe may decrease to 2.3 or even to 0.5 million by 2040 . Drivers and mobile plant operators working in land transport who are in danger of technological substitution amount to approximately 1.5% of total EU-15 employment in 2012. Those who require new training to keep performing the job, working in metal and machinery and related trades in wholesale, retail and repair of motor vehicles, amount to 0.7% of total EU-15 employment in 2012 . Impact on employment is not restricted to the land transport sector but will affect all sectors in which drivers are employed, such as warehousing and support, wholesale trade and postal and courier activities.
Future requirements of the workforce
It is relevant to note that both occupations (metal, machinery and related trades, as well as drivers and mobile plant operators) have low levels of ICT use, whereas the land transport sector will depend increasingly on ICT-based and specialised equipment and products in the future . In addition, the maintenance and repair industry will require ICT skills in addition to traditional vehicle repair skills . In this context, a shortage of ICT professionals has been identified for 2020 .
New occupations or reallocation?
Fulfilling future skills demand might offer opportunities for the reallocation of employees. Some highly qualified mechanics might move to higher-paying jobs in the information sector . Experienced drivers could apply their skills in remote control rooms for monitoring Connected Automated Vehicles (CAVs) . It is very difficult to predict the qualifications and characteristics of future jobs as driven by the wider economy, but recent labour market experiences suggest that new occupations will tend mostly towards the higher end of skills distribution .
What can be done to facilitate a smooth transition to the workforce of the future?
The impacts of CCAM on employment are largely influenced by the speed of introduction of new technologies and mobility changes. The more gradual the introduction, the higher the probability that the negative implications on employment will be absorbed by the European economic system. A slow CAV uptake or an informative awareness campaign can lead workers to qualify on time and mitigate the transition costs for them . Retraining or income assistance programmes could be used to support the transition .
 EC Communication (2018) 283: On the road to automated mobility: An EU strategy for mobility of the future
 Council of the European Union conclusions 15431/17: on the digitalisation of transport
 Alonso Raposo et al., An analysis of possible socio-economic effects of a Cooperative, Connected and Automated Mobility (CCAM) in Europe, JRC Scientific and Technical Research Report, 2018.
 Executive Office of the US President, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy, 2016.
 ITF, Managing the Transition to Driverless Road Freight Transport, International Transport Forum Policy Papers, No. 32, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2017.
 Frey et al., The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?, 2016.
 Arntz, M., T. Gregory and U. Zierahn, The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 189, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2016.
 Todd Alexander Litman, Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning, Victoria Transport Policy Institute Publishing, 2018.