Andreas Zucker works on long-term energy scenarios with the Economic Analysis and Financial Instruments unit of DG ENER, having previously worked on related topics with the European Commission's science and knowledge service, the Joint Research Centre (JRC). Before joining the European Commission, he worked for two utility companies in areas including corporate strategy, power generation, market analysis and R&I.
ANDREAS ZUCKER
Why are buildings important for the Energy transition?
Buildings are responsible for 40 % of the EU’s final energy consumption, the highest share. The majority of energy needs – heating & cooling, appliances, water heating and cooking – are still met by fossil fuels. This crucial sector is therefore given particular attention in the European Commission’s proposal for a long-term strategy (LTS) on greenhouse gas reductions[1].
What are the options?
The long-term strategy explores a number of measures to reduce energy use and switch to greenhouse gas- (GHG) neutral sources of energy. The continuous renewal of building stock offers an opportunity to improve the thermal insulation of building shells, reducing overall energy demand. Given that about 35 % of the EU’s buildings are over 50 years old and almost 75 % were built before energy performance standards existed, renovation must play a key role. By 2050, this will lead to energy savings in the residential sector of 55-62 %
In addition to reducing overall energy consumption, the fuel mix must become increasingly GHG-neutral. Electrification of the energy system is key, as GHGneutral energy sources mostly produce electricity. In residential buildings, electricity’s share will more than double from today’s 25 % to 53-63 %. In tertiary buildings, it will increase to more than 80 %. The electrification of space heating, steered by the prominent use of heat pumps, is an important driver of this dynamic. The 2050 share of electric heating is projected in the LTS to be 22-44 % in the residential sector and 44-60 % in services. Other studies see electricity meeting 35-75 % of residential final heating demand.
These variations reflect great uncertainty regarding future alternatives to electrification. In the LTS, natural gas is, to a large extent, substituted by e-gas in all scenarios, and to a lesser extent by biogas and hydrogen. In other studies, the contribution of natural gas to the energy consumption in buildings ranges from 0 % to over 20 %.
Barriers and enablers
While the fundamental approach is in place, there remain a number of challenges. The pace of renovations must increase significantly: energyefficient construction solutions, at affordable prices, allow shorter payback times, making renovations accessible to lower-income owners and landlords
Within buildings, appliances must become evermore efficient, able to do more with less. A critical development is the ‘talk’ between appliances (i.e. through the internet of things), laying the foundations for the development of smart buildings.
While there are significant opportunities for energy savings and technological solutions through digitalisation, their uptake will depend on ease of use. Smart technologies – minimally managed on smartphones, for instance – will need to evolve in line with user acceptance.
These are just some of the factors determining the development of energy use in the building sector, a complex and multi-disciplinary field of research and development under the spotlight in this edition of the SETIS magazine.