The SET-PLAN roadmap on low carbon energy technologies

Seven roadmaps are proposed, built around a vision for the European energy system that by 2020 will have already embarked on a transition to a low carbon economy. These roadmaps put forward concrete action plans aimed at raising the maturity of the technologies to a level that will enable them to achieve large market shares during the period up to 2050. The main sectoral targets are:

• Up to 20% of the EU electricity will be produced by wind energy technologies by 2020.
• Up to 15% of the EU electricity will be generated by solar energy in 2020. However if the DESERTEC vision is achieved, the contribution of solar energy will be higher, especially in the longer term.
• The electricity grid in Europe will be able to integrate up to 35% renewable electricity in a seamless way and operate along the "smart" principle, effectively matching supply and demand by 2020.
• At least 14% of the EU energy mix will be from cost-competitive, sustainable bio-energy by 2020.
• Carbon capture and storage technologies will become cost-competitive within a carbon-pricing environment by 2020-2025.
• While existing nuclear technologies will continue to provide around 30% of EU electricity in the next decades, the first Generation-IV nuclear reactor prototypes will be in operation by 2020, allowing commercial deployment by 2040.
• 25 to 30 European cities will be at the forefront of the transition to a low carbon economy by 2020.

It is noted that there is no directly quantifiable link between research expenditures and the value of the results obtained from research. However, as a pre-requisite for any cost-competitive deployment of technologies, each roadmap presents the technology objectives that are critical for making each low carbon technology fully cost-competitive, more efficient and proven at the right scale for market roll-out. For these technology areas, concrete research, development, demonstration and market replication activities, for which working together can make a difference in terms of maximizing the industrial and societal returns, have been identified. These activities, to be implemented in the next 10 years, have been classified into three main categories:

R&D programmes that include:

• Basic and Applied research - This refers to both conceptual and more applied research carried out within research centres, universities, and (to a lesser degree) private sector institutions.
• Pilot projects - This consists mainly of initial small scale trials of new technologies and developments straight out of the research laboratory. The results of this type of effort are proof of technological feasibility and assessment of subsystem and component operability.
• Test facilities for materials, components, etc.
• Demonstration programmes - This constitutes the actual trial and large scale demonstration of technologies, and is particularly relevant to prove the full-scale viability of the technology. This includes measures for coordination, knowledge and information exchange, etc.
• Market Replication measures - This represents the successful transfer of products from the demonstration stage into first markets, addressing the 'valley of death' phenomenon.

In essence, the roadmaps call for an unprecedented European research, development and demonstration programme that comprises:

• vigorous R&D programmes on materials; component design, development and testing in pilot plants; energy resource mapping; and development of planning, optimization and energy management tools, to remove the bottlenecks to competitiveness and to facilitate the development for new generations of energy technologies
• support research infrastructures, that include testing facilities for technology components, manufacturing of nuclear fuels, etc.
• comprehensive demonstration programmes that include demonstrators for all technologies, to bridge the gap and accelerate the transfer of technologies from research to market deployment
• market replication measures to demonstrate the feasibility and gain experience on key concepts that will become the backbone of the future energy system, such as virtual power plants to accommodate variable power, large scale photovoltaic systems in cities, and other energy efficiency measures.

This European research, development and demonstration programme on low carbon energy technologies has been estimated by the Commission together with the industry to cost between 58.5 to 71.5 billion euros over the next 10 years, divided between the EIIs and the Smart Cities Initiative as shown in Table 1. This should be shared between industry, the Member States and the European Commission. The partition of the cost for each EII may vary as well as for the activities within each EII. Typically, R&D programmes should have a prominent public and EU investment component, the demonstration programmes should have a strong industrial drive, accompanied by public support, both EU and national; and the market replication measures should have a large participation from industry.

Table 1: Cost estimates of the proposed SET-Plan EIIs and the Smart Cities Initiative

It is noted that although the cost of the electricity grid EII is significantly lower than that of other EIIs, the issue of integrating distributed energy sources in the transmission and the distribution power grid is addressed in the Wind and Solar EIIs, where activities with their own budget have been planned.

In 2007, the total R&D public and corporate investments for wind, solar (PV and CSP), carbon capture and storage, biofuels, smart grids and nuclear fission amounted to €2.23 billion in the EUSEC(2009)1296. €1.77 billion were devoted to non-nuclear technologies and €0.46 billion to nuclear fission.